Shogi now thought to be a win for sente

Until this year, most experts on the topic thought that shogi was objectively a draw with perfect play, as it seemed likely that with the symmetrical bishop exchance (Kakugawari) opening it should be too difficult to initiate the attack and the game should end in a draw by repetition (sennichite), as many games (both between engines and human pros) did. I learned recently that new computer analysis now shows that in this opening, the first player (sente) can successfully start the fight a reach a position with a 97% expected win probability (between engines). Of course many other defenses are possible besides this symmetric one, but most are believed to give sente some edge with no obvious likelihood of a draw. So I think it now looks more likely than not that sente wins by force. If so, perhaps the sennichite rule sometimes used in amateur play, that the first player must break the repetition, should become the official rule of shogi. If so, and if the amateur jishogi rule is also adopted (27 points wins for gote, 28 for sente), then there will be no draws and no obvious preference for sente or gote, although if the above is true then sente should still win with perfect play.

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